Polish GDP to grow 0.9% in 2023, 2.1% in 2024: central bank

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Poland’s central bank has updated its GDP growth forecasts for the country, saying it now expects the economy to expand 0.9 percent this year, followed by 2.1 percent growth in 2024 and 3.1 percent in 2025.

The Warsaw headquarters of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).

The Warsaw headquarters of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).Photo: PAP/Tomasz Gzell

Meanwhile, inflation is projected to stand at 11.9 percent this year, followed by 5.7 percent in 2024 and 3.5 percent in 2025, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said in its latest Inflation Report, which was released on Friday.

’Effects of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine’

According to the report, „global economic activity growth continued to decline in annual terms” in the final quarter of 2022.

„This was driven by the effects of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine (including high commodity prices and elevated uncertainty), monetary policy tightening in the largest economies and an increase in COVID-19 cases in China,” the report said.

It added that „global inflation has declined” since the Polish central bank’s previous Inflation Report, „although it remains high,” with price growth still „strongly affected by high energy prices, the second-round effects of earlier supply shocks, including in commodity markets, and also the relatively fast rebound in activity following the pandemic and rising labour costs.”

In its November projection, the bank had expected the Polish economy to grow 0.7 percent this year and 2 percent in 2024.

The Polish economy expanded by 4.9 percent in 2022, according to a preliminary estimate by the country’s statistics office.

Poland’s central bank chief, Adam Glapiński, on Thursday renewed his prediction that the Polish economy would avoid a recession this year and that inflation would drop to the single digits by the end of 2023.

The central bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Council on Wednesday left key interest rates unchanged, keeping the reference rate at 6.75 percent.

The panel earlier delivered a string of rate hikes in an effort to contain surging consumer prices.

Inflation in Poland stood at 17.2 percent in year-on-year terms in January, according to the state-run Statistics Poland (GUS) agency.

(gs)

Source: PAP, nbp.pl

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