Polish economy strong, but 'black swans’ loom in 2026, expert warns
Poland’s economy strengthened last year, but new shocks could emerge from unexpected directions in 2026, including from the United States, an expert has warned.
Photo:Julian Horodyski/Polish Radio
Piotr Wachowiak, head of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), a top Polish economics university, said that a volatile geopolitical landscape means policymakers and businesses should prepare for sudden crises, often described as „black swans”–rare events that are hard to predict but can have outsized impact.
„All the macroeconomic indicators show that Poland’s economy strengthened its position in 2025,” Wachowiak told Polish state news agency PAP, pointing to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that place Poland among the world’s 20 largest economies by nominal gross domestic product, a threshold sometimes described as the „trillion-dollar club.”
Uncertainty is certain
At the same time, he argued that uncertainty has become a defining feature of the global economy. Risk can be measured, he said, but uncertainty makes planning far harder and creates conditions in which disruptive events are more likely.
Wachowiak said potential „black swans” should not be associated solely with threats from the East. He argued that unpredictability in Washington could also reverberate across markets.
„With all due respect to US President Donald Trump, it is hard today to predict what decisions he may take in key global matters,” he said, adding that shifts in US policy toward Europe, China and Asia could unsettle the international order.
For Europe, including Poland, Wachowiak pointed to a different risk: a loss of competitiveness against the United States and parts of Asia.
If Europe falls behind, he said, growth could slow, investment could flow elsewhere, and living standards could come under pressure.
He said early symptoms are visible in parts of European industry, including the automotive sector, and in strategic technologies such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors and energy.
Poland, he added, may be more exposed than some richer European countries because it invests less in research and development and remains behind in the energy transition.
Lower electricity prices are crucial, he said, warning that high power costs could push firms to relocate outside Europe.
He also listed longer-term pressures that could trigger crises, including climate-related disasters such as droughts and sudden extreme weather, and demographic decline, which he said could drive up health and pension costs while shrinking the workforce.
AI bubble
With reversing demographic trends difficult, Wachowiak said Poland should move quickly toward a responsible migration policy that attracts workers with skills the country lacks and supports their integration.
Cybersecurity was another area of vulnerability, he said, including the prospect of a large-scale attack on critical infrastructure.
Wachowiak also warned that investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence could form a financial bubble, with asset prices rising faster than underlying revenues and profits.
The antidote, he said, is building economic resilience, including through investment funded by the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience Facility, created after the COVID-19 pandemic and used in Poland through its National Recovery Plan.
He argued that Poland should use EU funds more effectively this year to boost investment, because growth driven mainly by consumption may prove too fragile in a downturn.
’White swans’
He added that „white swans,” positive developments that are easier to anticipate, could still lift growth, including an end to the war in Ukraine, further interest-rate cuts paired with higher investment, and deregulation that strengthens legal and fiscal stability.
„Black swan” is a term popularized by Lebanese American academic and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in a book of the same name. Part of his broader work on uncertainty, the book argued for understanding hard-to-predict but impactful events.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP
