NATO ramps up air patrols over Poland, Baltics amid fears of Russian attack

NATO sharply stepped up fighter jet patrols over Poland and the Baltic states in recent days in what analysts described as a test of the alliance’s readiness to respond to a limited Russian attack.

FILE PHOTO: A Belgian Air Force F-16 fighter jet takes off during a NATO air policing deployment at Keflavik Airport in Keflavik, Iceland, August 11, 2026. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse

Polish daily „Rzeczpospolita” reported that alliance aircraft, including fighter jets, aerial tankers, reconnaissance planes, electronic warfare aircraft and airborne early warning planes, flew near-daily missions over northern and central Poland and close to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. The paper said the scale of the flights went well beyond what routine training exercises would explain.

„These weren’t just exercises”, the newspaper said, pointing instead to the significance of the U.S. military presence in Europe and to mounting concern within NATO over Russian intentions.

The patrols form part of Eastern Sentry, the NATO mission launched after Russian drones violated Polish airspace to bolster defenses along the alliance’s eastern flank.

Behind the increased activity lie warnings from intelligence officials in several NATO countries, including Sweden, Poland and Lithuania, that Russia could move against Poland or the Baltic states within the next few years. U.S. intelligence is said to be examining a range of possible Russian actions, from cyberattacks to limited military strikes.

That represents a shift from earlier assessments, which held that Moscow would avoid provoking NATO members while its war in Ukraine continued. U.S. officials cited in media reports said that view changed earlier this year.

Analysts said one scenario under consideration is a limited Russian attack designed to test NATO’s response and sow divisions among alliance members, potentially combined with long-range strikes or cyberattacks. The report also flagged the strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap, the narrow corridor between Poland and Lithuania that would be crucial for reinforcing the Baltic states in a crisis.

Officials stressed that the heightened NATO air presence does not signal an imminent attack, but rather reflects the alliance testing its ability to respond to different threat scenarios on its eastern flank.

(jh)

Source: Polish Radio