Polish GDP to shrink 2.3% in 2020, grow 6.1% in 2021: Goldman Sachs

US investment bank Goldman Sachs has upgraded its economic growth forecasts for Poland, saying it now expects the country’s GDP to contract by 2.3 percent this year and grow 6.1 percent in 2021.



In its previous projection released in September, the bank expected the Polish economy to shrink 3.5 percent in 2020 and expand by 6 percent in 2021, Poland’s PAP news agency has reported..

Poland is the only country in its region for which Goldman Sachs revised upward its forecast compared with September, the Polish state news agency reported.

The Polish economy contracted 1.6 percent in the third quarter of this year, the country’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) said on Friday in a flash estimate amid the coronavirus crisis.

Poland’s gross domestic product contracted 8.2 percent in the second quarter of this year, after posting 2 percent growth in the first three months of 2020, according to an estimate released by the state-run statistics agency in late August.

The Polish economy expanded by 4.5 percent in 2019 as a whole, after registering 5.3 percent growth in 2018, according to the Central Statistical Office.

The International Monetary Fund forecast last month that the Polish economy would shrink 3.6 percent in 2020, but then rebound to expand by 4.6 percent in 2021.

Under budget plans approved this autumn, the Polish government expects the country’s GDP to shrink 4.6 percent this year amid the coronavirus pandemic and grow 4 percent next year.

International ratings agency S&P Global last month affirmed Poland’s „A-” long-term foreign-currency credit rating, with a stable outlook, as economies worldwide struggle with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

The Fitch ratings agency at the end of September affirmed Poland’s „A-” credit rating with a stable outlook, citing the country’s “diversified economy with a track record of stable growth and sound policy framework, coupled with EU membership.”

The Moody’s ratings agency in September kept Poland’s rating unchanged at „A2” with a stable outlook.


Source: PAP, tvp.info

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